AL Central Preview
Over the next six weeks, I'll be evaluating each of the six divisions leading up to the end of spring training. Today I'll focus on what is probably the most wide open division: The American League Central.
The AL Central boasts two playoff teams from last year, including last year's World Series runner up. It also sports an Indians team with probably the best young rotation in baseball and a White Sox team that improved more than any other team outside San Diego.
Here are my rankings:
1. Cleveland Indians - That more people aren't picking Cleveland to win this division is really an oversite. Cleveland not only boasts the reigning AL Cy Young winner, but a rotation of four young fireballers that average over 94 mph on their fastballs. The Gavin Floyd addition is good depth behind what is otherwise the best young rotation baseball has seen in a while.
Most underrated move - Getting Brandon Moss for nothing. Moss will easily have the highest OPS on the team and adds legit power to an outfield that features Michael Bourne and Michael Brantley.
Where they'll struggle: Not many places. When your biggest question mark is inserting your best prospect (Francisco Lindor) into the 9th spot in the lineup, you've done a good job of building your team. Wait - Nick Swisher is still on this team. Let's go with that.
Final thoughts: Cleveland didn't do much this offseason - and didn't need to. They're a force that is just arriving, and seems to have found a good balance of young players and veterans. Add to that key losses to Detroit and Kansas City, and it's not hard to see the silver lining.
2. Chicago White Sox - What a difference an offseason makes. After losing 188 ballgames the last two seasons, General Manager Rick Hahn pulled off one of the best offseasons of recent memory. The White Sox addressed glaring needs in the OF, DH, rotation, and bullpen without losing any key players or prospects. Jeff Samardzija was acquired for little more than Marcus Semien, and signing David Robertson and Melky Cabrera only cost second and third round draft picks. This to a team built around one of the three best left handed pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale and probably the best young slugger in the game in Jose Abreu. Abreu showed himself to be extremely polished last year. After a blistering start, he started to receive the Barry Bonds treatment in the second half of the season (as the White Sox lineup offered him no protection). Instead of struggling, he simply took what was pitched to him, showing that on top of the massive power, he also has elite hit and eye tools. The sky is the limit for Abreu, who will be in the argument for best pure hitter in the game if Miguel Cabrera doesn't rebound. This year, Abreu will have Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche hitting around him. Expect bigger things from him.
Most underrated move: Shoring up that bullpen with minor league contracts. Everyone knows that the White Sox signed David Robertson to close and Zach Duke for setup. They also traded for Dan Jennings for more help from the left side. But some of their minor deals will provide depth in case some of the arms they relied on last year don't pan out. Add Jesse Crain and Matt Albers to a pen that already doesn't have room for all of Jake Petricka, Daniel Webb, Javy Guerra, and Zach Putnam. The White Sox had one of the worst pens in baseball last year. This year, they may have one of the best.
Where they'll struggle: While Rick Hahn did more than most could have hoped for to shore up the White Sox many holes, many more remain. Despite having three top notch starters, the back end of the rotation includes Hector Noesi and the shell of John Danks. After that, it gets ugly (well, uglier). White Sox top prospect Carlos Rodon might be an option, but he's probably at least half a season from the big league club. What's more likely is that next in line will be recently resigned Scott Carrol, who has no business starting major league games. The White Sox also have serious infield problems, with no clear starter at 2B and a mirage at 3B. The White Sox added Gordon Beckham and Emilio Bonafacio this offseason, but neither is the answer unless the question is "who is the 25th man on the roster?". Ideally, the White Sox would like to see Micah Johson steal the 2B job in spring training, but that's more of a pipe dream given his lack of experience and injury history. It's more likely Bonafacio gets 100+ starts there for the White Sox. As for 3B, the job is Conor Gillaspie's (and not even to lose, just to have). This is unfortunate, because the security is based on a good first half last year. In the second half, Conor hit .228/.284/.330.....which is abysmal. It's also what is normally expected out of Conor Gillaspie. It's unfortunate the the White Sox didn't do more to address this position, because it's about as big a hole as any team has. The darkhorse in this is recently acquired former top prospect Nick Delmonico. But it's unlikely he remains on the roster after spring training.
Final thoughts: The White Sox have a great first three in their rotation and an offense that should score a lot of runs. It's not unreasonable to think they'll run away with the division if everything clicks.
3. Detroit Tigers - It's good to be the king, and for the last half decade Detroit has. Most analysts are betting on the Tiger's health one more time. But Detroit also lost it's ace this offseason, former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. Miguel Cabrera regressed significantly last year. Their best hitter from a year ago is a 36 year old DH who just had offseason knee surgery. There's a lot here to worry about.
Most underrated move: Letting Scherzer go. It's the beginning of the end for the Tigers, and they know it. Adding a $200 million contract for a pitcher entering his 30's is not something you do when your roster is riddled with similar players on similar deals that are falling apart in front of you. Instead, Detroit made more minor moves to shore up the rotation (more on that in a minute) in the hope that the existing pieces will carry them. They picked up Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon, while simultaneously trading away Rick Porcello for the very overrated and overpriced Yoenis Cespedes.
Where they'll struggle: Despite being their most underrated move, this rotation is going to be bad. David Price is the new ace, after a decent half season last year (though not his best). Price enters the end of his peak years off a very underrated season where he threw 248 innings. The Tigers will need him to throw more this year. Anibal Sanchez is a nice rotation piece, but he's far from what you want as your second best pitcher. He has trouble staying healthy, and even when he does he only averages a bit over 6 innings a start. Former ace Justin Verlander saw his ERA balloon for the fourth straight year, this time by more than a run. He's getting close to buyout territory. The Tigers went a different route with the back end of the rotation, saying goodbye to Scherzer and Porcello in the process. The Shane Greene acquisition has some upside. Greene's got an average fastball that can dial up to the high 90's when he wants. He pitched very well in half a season at Yankees stadium last year as well. Odds are he becomes a decent rotation piece, though not with the upside of Porcello. The Alfredo Simon pickup was probably one of the worst moves of the winter. Other than the fact that he's a 33 year old never was with a $5 million salary and a looming sexual assualt case, there are many more warning signs about Simon. The most glaring is that he completely fell apart in the second half last year. Simon's been horrible for his entire career before going 12-3 before the All-Star break last year. Then he went back to being completely terrible. I don't understand major league teams' fascination with guys that go on a single hot streak one time late in their careers. They NEVER pan out. That Dave Dombrowski gave up legitimate talent to acquire Simon should have lost him his job.
Final thoughts: If the stars have elite seasons in them, it could carry Detroit to one more division title. Probably not, though.
4. Kansas City Royals - The Royals were such an incredible story last year. It's really disspointing to see them fall this far. But they lost a tremendous amount of talent this offseason and did a really poor job of replacing it.
Most underrated move: Keeping the pen elite. Dayton Moore did a great job of finding room in the budget to keep the progressively more expensive elite group of relievers he has assembled. He's also picked up a bunch of intriguing names on smaller deals, most notably Ryan Madson.
Where they'll struggle: I can go on and on about the lineup, as it's worse than last year. But this lineup wasn't good last year either. KC won on pitching and defense, and they've got the pen to do it again. Unfortunately, the loss of James Shields and the probable regression of guys like Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie is too much to overcome. The addition of Edison Volsquez to replace Shields is laughable if it wasn't so tragic how much they overpaid for his services. There isn't much depth ready to step in to the rotation effectively, short of a really underrated Kris Medlen signing. But there's no guarantee he even sees a mound this year. The Royals flounder this year, short of Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy both pitching like Cy Young contenders. Duffy did report to spring training with a new beard...
Final thoughts: It's back to the drawing board for the Royals, who will likely fall off a ton after finally getting to the playoffs. There's no sugar coating this. KC has peaked, the peak was quick, and it'll be a while before they're good again.
5. Minnesota Twins - Was there a doubt? Minnesota has been terrible for years now, and while their farm system is amongst baseball's best, it's still years away. The Twin's fascination with locking up low-mid tier starters to long term deals isn't helping anything.
Most underrated move: They didn't do much. They signed Ervin Santana long term. So if you're looking for low-mid tier starters signed for too much money and you didn't know where to go, you do now.
Where they'll struggle: On the field? Everywhere in every facet. But in all seriousness, retention. There's a reason the Twins are loading up on middling talent on bad deals. That reason is no one wants to play in Minnesota. They need to build a clubhouse that's close and that players want to be a part of, because the city does not sell itself. As the Twins minor leagues begins graduating players the next few seasons, team chemistry will be the key to securing core players before they bolt for greener pastures.
Final thoughts: Life is great, as long as you aren't a Twins fan. But most people aren't, so it's alright.
