You're watching the wrong team
Only one Chicago team will be vying for a playoff spot late this season. It probably isn’t the one you think.
Winners of seven of their last nine (including a sweep of the best team in baseball), the White Sox are playing their best baseball of the year. It’s amazing how quickly things can turn around in baseball. The White Sox, currently five games under .500, were one of the worst teams in baseball just three weeks ago. What happened?
Mostly, players just began to return to their historical norms. Adam Eaton had a .234 BAbip in the month of April. His numbers have normalized since. Melky Cabrera was on his way to having his worst season since 2010. Hitting almost .400 the last two weeks has changed that. Alexei Ramirez extended his usual slow start through June this year…but has a .435/.480/.522 slash line since.
With the players on offense finally hitting like they’re capable, the White Sox are winning games – even against good teams. Good pitching will do that, and the White Sox have four exceptional starters now with the emergence of Carlos Rodon. Chris Sale, meanwhile, has become the best pitcher on the planet. Jose Quintana continues to defy odds. Even Jeff Samardzija, whose ERA is a tick above four, is pitching mostly elite with 16 quality starts in 20 and 1 earned run over the last two outings.
The White Sox playing better is not that surprising given their expectations going in to the season. With the crosstown classic this weekend, the opposite direction both Chicago teams are heading becomes more obvious.
For the Cubs, it’s not fair. They’re a much improved team over last year and currently in the second wild card spot. A shortage of reliable starting pitching and the realization that John Lester isn’t quite the ace they’re paying for makes them an obvious team on the downturn. The Cardinals and the Pirates are firmly ahead of the Cubs, and have way better run differentials. The Cubs are already outperforming their differential, meaning even though they’ve been incredibly lucky they’re still not good enough to keep up. Heck, Cubs fans cheered this week as their team managed to lose only five times in seven games against the Cardinals. Who can blame them? For that fan base, the accomplishment was real. With a second half loaded with in division games, it’s hard to see the Cubs’ luck continuing. They have a lot of good pieces, but many don’t fit together. Fielding their best offense would involve putting three players on the field that should be playing 1B or DH.
The AL Central tells a much different tale for the White Sox. The Royals just suffered a huge injury to Alex Gordon. Gordon was an integral piece of their offense, but even more so for their defense. Most people wouldn’t consider the run saving value of a LF, but other than defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons in Atlanta, no one has saved more runs defensively than Alex Gordon the last two years. Defense and timely hitting are what KC needs to do to be successful. They’re going to have a hard time without Gordon. Suddenly, the AL Central is wide open right when the White Sox start hitting their stride.
