AL East Preview
It's time for part two of my division previews. This week I tackle the American League East.
What used to be a perennial powerhouse, the AL East has seen a shift in the balance of power recently, with the Orioles winning their first division title in 17 years. They also ran away with the division. With the flurry of moves Boston and Toronto made, this year should be a lot more interesting.
Here are my rankings:
1. Baltimore Orioles - This division is a complete crapshoot at the top, with three teams that will probably all be vying for the title in the final week. I went with Baltimore, who has more and better pitching depth. While no team in this division has an absolutely great rotation, the Orioles are the only team with a recovered Dylan Bundy waiting in the wings.
Most underrated move - Last month's signing of Everth Cabrera. No one seemed to notice, but Baltimore took a huge hole at second base and plugged it with a player that will steal a ton of bases. Sure, he's got the PED infraction on his resume, but the guy can still run.
Where they'll struggle: If Chris Davis doesn't return to some semblance of form, this offense could struggle mightily. The loss of Nick Markakis simply makes this a worse team. Especially when you replace him with Alejandro De Aza. Davis represents the best (and really only) way for the lineup to improve dramatically.
Final thoughts: I might already be regretting this choice. The Orioles got worse over the offseason and I might be picking them to temper my expectations of the up and comers. Still, they won 96 games last year. That isn't luck.
2. Boston Red Sox - This team is going to mash. Adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to the middle of a lineup that starts with Dustin Pedroia, Shane Victorino, and David Ortiz makes this one of the better lineups in baseball. Rusney Castillo -who is completely capable - will be in the mix at the top if someone falters. Watch out for Mike Napoli, who seems healthy and ready to contribute again.
Most underrated move - Yoan Moncada. Remember this name. If you think you've seen the best talent Cuba has to offer, think again. Most scouts think he'll need the better part of a year to adjust. I think he'll force that issue. Especially if Xander Bogaerts struggles.
Where they'll struggle: While this rotation has five quality arms, it's really a rotation of #3 starters. They'll throw a lot of quality starts and that offense is going to lead to a lot of wins, but they don't have the high end stopper you'd want going after a losing streak or pitching the first game of an important series.
Final thoughts: The Red Sox are going to mash themselves to a lot of victories. They really could use a top end starter. My ranking changes if they pull the trigger on a Cole Hamels deal.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - I could easily see the Blue Jays running away with this division. They made two huge acquisitions this offseason in Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson. The top five in their order may be better than Boston's (Jose Reyes, Martin, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Donaldson). The bottom of their lineup will struggle though, and their rotation isn't quite as good.
Most underrated move - trading for Josh Donaldson and giving up very little in return. I don't think people understand how good Donaldson is. He has put up WAR's of 8 and 7.4 the last two years, respectively. He's one of the best players in the game.
Where they'll struggle: Rotation. There are five guys that belong in a rotation here, but I'm not sure there's much potential for excellence. Both R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle continue to defy age, but neither is an ace. Unfortunately for Toronto, they're the best two pitchers in that rotation. Toronto's budget is pretty close to maxed out, so there isn't much potential for improvement, short of a huge jump from fireballer Aaron Sanchez.
Final thoughts: Toronto will be right there all year, provided they don't suffer multiple setbacks. Their star talent on offense is best in division and could lead to a surprise.
4. New York Yankees - Seeing the Yankees ranked fourth really belies how positive I am about their offseason. The Yankees are in a tough spot and didn't do a lot to make their financial situation worse. The ARod thing is going to be a distraction, but it's also a chance for the Yankees to improve. The Yankees don't appear to have a lot of money they're willing to throw around before some of their long term deals expire. If Arod can provide anything at all close to what he has in the past, the team could surprise.
Most underrated move: Trading a back end starter for the young Didi Gregorius. This was a great move for the Yankees. Derek Jeter is not replaceable. Instead of trying, Brian Cashman went out and got the opposite of Jeter: a young shortstop with plus range and arm that won't hit for average but projects for a bit of power. It's exactly the kind of stability the Yankees need. He'll come in immediately and defend.
Where they'll struggle: Like most teams in the division, in the rotation first and foremost. CC Sabathia is worse every year and is probably going to fall farther this year. Masahiro Tanaka was exceptional last year before injury, but he's a ticking time bomb. He opted for rehab instead of surgery for a tear last year, which simply delays surgerical options.
Final thoughts: The Yankees in all likelihood will not compete. They did last year because the division was down. They probably won't hit .500 with this year's competition.
5. Tampa Bay Rays - It's really interesting to see the Rays down here. They lost their general manager and manager and watched long time ace David Price get shipped off to Detroit. All said, the culture here might be different, but there's still a lot of talent. The Rays probably have the best rotation in the division. It isn't inconceivable to see them jump. If Matt Moore is healthy, this rotation is actually very good.
Most underrated move: Not trading Evan Longoria with everyone else. The Rays recognized that Longoria was more valuable on his current deal than what they could get for him. They could always trade him after his value increases.
Where they'll struggle: That offense is really bad. James Loney is the projected cleanup hitter. He won't slug .400. Making matters worse, Loney's probably the only player you can realistically predict to hit better than .270. Yeesh.
Final thoughts: It's too bad the Rays didn't do more to supplement their offense. The pitching on this team is not only good, but they're in the cheap/controllable range that's important for teams like Tampa Bay to take advantage of.
